Official Vendors Are Cutting Prices for Good — How Much Relay Margin Is Left?
How much relay margin is left now that official vendors are permanently cutting prices? This article answers it with verifiable official numbers: OpenAI went from GPT-6 Astra at $10/$50 to GPT-6 Sol at $2/$10 (declared permanent with no expiry date) to GPT-6 Luna at $0.10/$0.50 — a 100x output-price gap from Astra to Luna; GPT-6.1 Sol is also $2/$10, officially 'close to Astra at one-fifth the price,' with cached input at $0.10 (5% of list); Claude Opus 5.5 landed at $4/$20 with cache reads down 60%, and Sonnet 5.5 is cheaper still. We run the relay math: at the same 20% markup, gross spread per million output tokens falls from about ¥71 in the Astra era to about ¥14 at Sol pricing to about ¥0.7 at Luna pricing — while servers, bandwidth, payment rails, support and risk control don't get cheaper at all. Measured through the exchange-rate lever mainland relays commonly use (¥0.5/USD), the incentive for a user to register and prepay in order to save ¥3.3 evaporates at Luna pricing. Also covers the vendors' three downstream moves (OpenAI halving API credits per dollar on Pro and adding a $500/month Pro 500 tier; Alibaba's Token Plan covering Qwen/Kimi/GLM/DeepSeek in one subscription; Zhipu giving 100,000 users 100M tokens each), falsifies the 'industry is slowing down' narrative (at least 11 models shipped September 21-29, and lmmarketcap counts 60 September releases — yet GPT-6.1 Astra, set for October, was reported cancelled, and a DNS-tunneling incident paused tool-calling-related training, evaluation and inference for OpenAI's strongest models), and lays out what actually ships in October: Kimi K3.1 (official teaser page live, registry callable — strongly reported, media pointing at month-end, 1M context with Low/High/Max reasoning tiers), Qwen4 (officially 'coming soon,' no date), Gemini 4 (officially 'well before year-end' — no October claim), and Meta Watermelon (only an internal-document October window). Explicitly excluded: any DeepSeek V4.1 Pro schedule, the Space Bunny attribution, and any Grok 5 timeline. Lands on the five things relays must compete on: mainland direct connectivity and availability, aggregation the vendors structurally can't do, payment and invoicing, upstream channel quality and latency, and engineering that moves cost reduction from buying cheaper to using less (Nvidia's SoL-Pi at 50%/54.3% fewer tokens and $1,339→$894 per task; OpenSquilla retaining 99.96% quality at 88.9% lower cost; Anthropic cutting 80% of Claude Code's system prompt).